Cliquez ici pour revenir au sommaire du site    

A random Walk down Wall Street

Une marche au hasard à travers la Bourse

 

Caractéristiques
4ème de couverture
Préface
Table des matières
Acheter ce livre

Caractéristiques

Version US :
Auteur : Burton G. MALKIEL
Publication : 1999 (première édition 1973)
Editeur : W.W. Norton & Company
ISBN : 0-393-32040-5
Nombre de pages : 499
Prix : 132,32 francs (20,17 euros)

4ème de couverture

"[A] classic ... has set thousands of on investors on a straight path since it was first published ... Even if you read the book then a refresher course is probably in order."
-- CHICAGO TRIBUNE

This gimmick-free, irreverent, and vastly informative guide shows how to navigate the turbulence on Wall Street and beat the pros at their own game. Skilled at puncturing financial bubbles and other delusions of the Wall Street crowd, Burton G. Malkiel shows why a broad portfolio of stocks selected at random will match the performance of one carefully chosen by experts.

Taking a shrewd book at the high-tech boom and ists aftermath, Malkiel shows how to maximize gains and minimize losses in this era of electronics brokers, virtual gurus, and flashy investment vehicles. Learn how to analyze the potential returns, not only for stocks and bonds, but for the full range of investment opportunities, from money market accounts and real estate investment trusts to insurance, home owning, and tangible assets like gold and collectibles. Decode the rating game for mutual funds and discover the unique advantages of index mutual funds over the wide range of riskier alternatives. And, in a special chapter appearing only in this paperback edition, tackle the tricky terrain of financial derivatives.
Year in and year out the best investing guide money can buy, this enhanced edition includes an update of Malkiel's famous "Life-Cycle Guide to Investing".

BURTON G. MALKIEL is a member of the economics department and holds the Chemical Bank Chairman's Professorship at Princeton University.

Preface

It has now been close to thirty years since I began writing th first edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. The message of the original edition was a very simple one : Investors would be far better off buying and holding an index fund than attempting to buy and sell individual securities or actively managed mutual funds. I boldly stated that buying and holding all the stocks in a broad, stock-market average--as index funds do--was likely to outperform professionally managed funds whose high expense charges and large trading costs detract substantially from investment returns.
Now, some thirty years later, I believe even more strongly in that original thesis, and there's more than a six-figure gain to prove it. The chart on the following page makes the case with great simplicity. It shows how an investor with $10,000 at the start of 1969 would have fared investing in a Standard $ Poor's 500-Stock Index Fund. For comparison, the results are also plotted for a second investor who instead purchased shares in the average actively managed fund. The difference is dramatic. Through June 30, 1998, the index investor was ahead by almost $140,000, with her original $10,000 increasing thirty-one-fold to $311,000. And the index returns were calculated after deducting the typical expenses (2/10 of 1 percent) charged for running an index fund.
Why then a seventh edition of this book ? If the basic message hasn't changed, what has ? The answer is that there have been enormous changes in the financial instruments available to the public. A book meant to provide a comprehensive investment guide for individual investors needs to be updated to cover the full range of investment products available. In addition, investors can enefit for a critical analysis of the wealth of new information provided by academic researchers and market professionnals--made comprehensible in prose accessible to everyone with an interest in investing. There have been so many bewildering claims about the stock market that it's important to have a book that sets the record straight.
Over the past quarter century, we have become accustomed to accepting the rapid pace of technological change in our physical environment. Innovations such as cellular and video telephones, cable television, compact discs, microwave ovens, laptop computers, the Internet, e-mail, and new medical advances from organ transplants and laser surgery to nonsurgical methods of treating kidney stones and unclogging arteries have materially affected the way we live. Financial innovation over the same period has been equally rapid. In 1973, when the first edition of this book appeared, we did not have money market funds, NOW accounts, ATMs, index mutual funds, tax exempt funds, emerging-markets funds, floating-rate notes, inflation protection securities, equity REITs, Roth IRAs, zero-coupon bonds, S&P index futures and options, and new trading techniques such as "portfolio insurance" and "program trading," just to mention a few of the changes that have occured in the financial environment. Much of the new material in this book has been included to explain these financial innovations and to show you as a consumer can benefit from them.
This edition takes a hard look at the basic thesis of earlier editions of Random Walk--that the market prices stocks so efficiently that a blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal can select a portfolio that performs as well as those managed by the experts. Through the past thirty years that thesis has held up remarkably well. More than two-thirds of professionnal portfolio managers have been outperformed by the unmanaged S&P 500-Stock Index. Nevertheless, a number of studies by academics and practitionners, completed during the 1980s and 1990s, have cast doubts on the validity of the theory. And the stock market crash of October 1987 raised further questions concerning the vaunted efficiency of the market. This edition explains the recent controversy and reexamines the claim that it's possible to "beat the market". I conclude that reports of the death of the efficient-market theory are vastly exaggerated. I will, however, review the evidence on a number of techniques of stock selection that are believed to tilt the odds of success in favor of the individual investor.
The book remains fundamentally a readable investment guide for individual investors. As I have counseled individuals and families about financial strategy, it has become increasingly clear to me that one's capacity for risk bearing depends importantly upon one's age and ability to earn income from non-investment sources. It is also the case that the risk involved in most investments decreases with the length of time the investment can be held. For these reasons, optimal investment strategies must be age related. Chapter Thirteen, entitled "A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing," should prove very helpful to people of all ages. This chapter alone is worth the cost of a high-priced appointment with a personal financial adviser.
Finally, the facts and figures in the book have been completely revised and updated. I survey the stock and bond markets at the end of the twentieth century and present a set of strategies that should successfully carry investors into the new millenium.
My debts of gratitude to those mentioned in earlier editions continue. In addition, I must mention the names of a number of people who where particularly helpful in making special contributions to the seventh edition. These include James Litvack, Gabrielle Napolitano, Abby Joseph Cohen, James Riepe, George Sauter, John Bogle, Leila Heckman, Will McIntosh, Keith Mullins, Jim Troyer, Andrew Engel, Mark Thompson, Steven Goldberg, Willy Spat, and David Twardock. Special thanks go to Walter Lenhard and Andrew Clarke of the Vanguard Group of Investment Companies, who assembled much of the financial data on investment returns used in this edition, and to Shane Antos and Jonathan Curran, who provided indispensable and superb research assistance. Lugene Whitley made extraordinary contributions in transforming various illegible drafts and dictating tapes into readable text. Phyllis Durepos also provided valuable typing assistance. Ed Parsons and Mark Henderson of W. W. Norton provided indispensable assistance in bringing this edition to publication. Patricia Taylor continued her association with the project and made extremely valuable editorial contributions to the seventh edition.
My wife, Nancy Weiss Malkiel, made by far the most important contributions to the successful completion of the past three editions. In addition to providing the most loving encouragement and support, she read carefully through various drafts of the manuscript and made innumerable suggestions that clarified and vastly improved the writing. She even corrected several errors that had eluded me and a variety of proofreaders and editors over the first four editions. Most important, she has brought incredible joy to my life. No one more deserved the dedication of a book than she.

Burton G. Malkiel
Princeton University
October 1998

Table des matières

Preface 13
Acknoledgments from Earlier Editions 17
PART ONE - STOCKS AND THEIR VALUE  
1. Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air 23
What Is a Random Walk ? 24
Investing as a Way of Life Today 26
Investing in Theory 28
The Firm-Foundation Theory 29
The Castle-in-the-Air Theory 31
How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted 33
2. The Madness of Crowds 35
The Tulip-Bulb Craze 36
The South Sea Bubble 39
The Florida Real Estate Craze 45
Wall Street Lays an Egg 46
An Afterword 53
3. Stock Valuation from the Sixties through the Nineties 55
The Sanity of Institutions 55
The Soaring Sixties 57
The "New Era" : The Growth-Stock|New-Issue Craze
57
Synergy Generates Energy : The Conglomerate Boom
61
Performance Comes to the Market : The Bubble in Concept Stocks
 69
The Sour Seventies 73
The Nifty Fifty
73
The Roaring Eighties 76
The Triumphant Return of New Issues
76
Concepts Conquer Again : The Biotechnology Bubble
78
The Chinese Romance with the Lycoris Plant
80
Some Other Bubbles of the 1980s
81
What Does It All Mean ? 85
The Nervy Nineties 85
The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks
85
The Internet Craze of the Late 1990s
90
A Final Word 94
4. The Firm-Foundation Theory of Stock Prices 95
The "Fundamental" Determinants of Stock Prices 96
Two Important Caveats 103
Testing the Rules 106
One More Caveat 108
What's left of the Firm Foundation ? 111
PART TWO - HOW THE PROS PLAY THE BIGGEST GAME IN TOWN  
5. Technical and Fundamental Analysis 117
Technical versus Fundamental Analysis 118
What Can Charts Tell You ? 119
The Rationale for the Charting Method 124
Why Might Charting Fail to Work ? 126
From Chartist to Technician 127
The Technique of Fundamental Analysis 128
Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work ? 132
Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together 134
6. Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory 138
Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts 138
Is There Momentum in The Stock Market ? 140
Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk ? 142
Some More Elaborate Technical Systems 145
The Filter System
146
The Dow Theory
146
The Relative-Strength System
147
Price-Volume Systems
148
Reading Chart Patterns
148
Randomness Is Hard to Accept
149
A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money 150
The Hemline Indicator
151
The Super Bowl Indicator
153
The Odd-Lot Theory
153
A Few More Systems
155
Technical Market Gurus 155
Why Are Technicians Still Hired ? 159
Appraising the Counterattack 160
Implications for Investors 163
7. How Good Is Fundamental Analysis ? 165
The Views from Wall Street and Academia 166
Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant ? 166
Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded ? 170
1. The Influence of Random Events
171
2. The Creation of Dubious Reported Earnings through "Creative" Accounting Procedures
172
3. The Basic Incompetence of Many of the Analysts Themselves
174
4. The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk or to Portfolio Management
177
Do Security Analysts Pick Winners ? The Performance of the Mutual Funds 178
Can Any Fundamental System Pick Winners ? 186
The Verdict on Market Timing 187
The Semi-strong and Strong Forms of the Random-Walk Theory 190
The Middle of the Road : A Personal Viewpoint 193
PART THREE - THE NEW INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY  
8. A New Walking Shoe : Modern Portfolio Theory 199
The Role of Risk 200
Defining Risk : The Dispersion of Returns 201
Exhibit 201
Expected Return and Variance : Measures of Reward and Risqk
201
Documenting Risk : A Long-Run Study 204
Reducing Risk : Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) 206
Diversification in Practice 211
9. Reaping Reward by Increasing Risk 220
Beta and Systematic Risk 221
The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 224
Let's Look at the Record 229
An Appraisal of the Evidence 232
The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk : Arbitrage Pricing Theory
234
A Summing Up 237
10. The Assault on the Random-Walk Theory : Is the Market Predictable after All ?240
Predictable Patterns in the Behavior of Stock Prices 242
1. Stocks Do Sometimes Get on One-Way Streets
243
2. But Eventually Stock Prices Do Change Direction and Hence Stockholder Returns Tend to Reverse Themselves
244
3. Stocks Are Subject to Seasonal Moodiness, Especially at the Beginning of the Year and the End of the Week
247
Predictable Relationships between Certain "Fundamental" Variables and Future Stock Prices 249
1. Smaller Is Often Better
249
2. Stocks with Low Price-Earnings Multiples Outperform Those with High Multiples
251
3. Stocks that Sell at Low Multiples of Their Book Values Tend to Produce Higher Subsequent Returns
253
4. Higher Initial Dividends and Lower Price-Earnings Multiples Have Meant Higher Subsequent Returns
254
5. The "Dogs of the Dow" Strategy
258
And the Winner Is... 259
The Performance of Professional Investors
259
Concluding Comments 267
Appendix : The Market Crash of October 1987 270
PART FOUR - A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR RANDOM WALKERS AND OTHER INVESTORS  
11. A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers 277
Exercise 1 : Cover Thyself with Protection 278
Exercise 2 : Know Your Investment Objectives 281
Exercise 3 : Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can 289
Pension Plans and IRAs
289
Keogh Plans
290
Roth IRAs
293
Tax-Deferred Annuities
294
Exercise 4 : Be Competitive; Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation 295
Money-Market Mutual Funds
295
Money-Market Deposit Accounts
297
Bank Certificates
299
Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds
300
Exercise 5 : Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country 301
Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Generate Large Future Returns
302
No-Load Bond Funds Are Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors
303
Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors
305
Hot TIPS : Inflation Indexed Bonds
307
Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie ?
309
Exercise 6 : Begin your Walk at Your Own Home ; Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles 310
Exercise 7 : Beef Up with Real Estate Investment Trusts 313
Exercise 8 : Tiptoe through the Investment Fields of Gold and Collectibles 318
Exercise 9 : Remember that Commission Costs Are Not Random ; Some Are Cheapers than Others 322
Exercise 10 : Diversify Your Investment Steps 324
A Final Checkup 324
12. Handicapping the Financial Race : A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns from Stocks and Bonds 326
What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds ? 326
Three Eras of Financial Market Returns 331
Era I : The Age of Comfort
333
Era II : The Age of Angst
334
Era III : The Age of Exuberance
340
The Age of the Millenium 342
Appendix : Projecting Returns for Individual Stocks 347
13. A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing 351
Four Assset Allocation Principles 352
1. Risk and Reward Are Related
352
2. Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment
353
3. Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds
356
4. The Risks You Can Afford to Take Depend on Your Total Financial Situation
360
Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan 362
1. Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets
363
2. Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk
363
3. Persistent Savings in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off
367
The Life-Cycle Investment Guide 368
14. Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street 372
The No-Brainer Step : Investing in Index Funds 373
The Index Fund Solution : A Summary
375
A Broader Definition of Indexing
378
A Specific Index Fund Portfolio
382
The Tax-Managed Index Fund
383
The Do-It-Yourself Step : Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules 386
The Substitute-Player Step : Hiring a Professional Wall-Street Walker 391
Risk Level
394
Unrealized Gains
394
Expense Ratios
395
The Morningstar Mutual-Fund Information Service 395
A Primer on Mutual-Fund Costs 398
Loading Fees
399
Expense Charges
399
Comparing Mutual-Fund Costs
400
The Malkiel Step 401
A Paradox 405
Some Last Reflections on Our Walk 406
Supplement : How Pork Bellies Acquired an Ivy League Suit ; A Primer on Derivatives 409
Appendix to Supplement : What Determines Prices in the Futures and Options Market ? 442
A Random Walker's Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds 447
Bibliography 467
Index 483

Acheter ce livre

Vous pouvez commander ce livre chez Amazon en cliquant sur l'un de ces liens :
Acheter "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" en anglais sur Amazon.fr
Acheter "Gagner en bourse. Une marche au hasard..." en français sur Amazon.fr
Acheter "Gagner en bourse. Une marche au hasard..." en anglais sur Amazon.ca
Acheter "Gagner en bourse. Une marche au hasard..." en français sur Amazon.ca

  Haut de la page     Bibliographie     Itinéraire de lectures     Sommaire du site